Sports Illustrated cover jinx

The Sports Illustrated Cover Jinx is an urban legend that states that individuals or teams who appear on the cover of the Sports Illustrated magazine will subsequently be jinxed (experience bad luck). This is an example of confirmation bias.

1 Explanations
2 Notable incidences
3 References
4 Further reading

Explanations

While the list of "examples" of the jinx may be extensive, an individual record of 49 cover appearances^[1] by Michael Jordan did not hinder his success. Similarly, Vince Young also overcame the Sport Illustrated jinx by appearing on the cover of Sports Illustrated twice during Texas's National Championship season;^[2] Emmitt Smith appeared on the cover the same week the Dallas Cowboys played in Super Bowl XXVIII. In the America's Game documentary, Smith recalled that he adamantly wanted off the cover for fear of the jinx. Regardless, the Cowboys went on to win their second consecutive title of the 1990s, and fourth in team history.

The most common explanation for the perceived effect is that athletes are generally featured on the cover after an outlier performance; their future performance is likely to display regression toward the mean and be less impressive by comparison. This decline in performance would then be misperceived as being related to, or even possibly caused by, the appearance on the magazine cover.

This explanation does not apply to rookies or others who are featured relatively early in their careers.

SI addressed their own opinions on the "alleged" cover jinx in a 2002 issue that featured a black cat on the cover.^[3]

Notable incidences

August 16, 1954: Braves third baseman Eddie Mathews is the first person to appear on the cover of Sports Illustrated. The Braves snapped a nine-game winning streak, and a broken hand later causes Mathews to miss seven games.
January 31, 1955: Skier Jill Kinmont suffers a near-fatal crash at Alta, Utah the same week that she appears on the cover, and is left paralyzed from the chest down.
May 28, 1956 - Indy 500 Winner Bob Sweikert is featured on the cover. Less than three weeks later he is killed in a sprint car crash.^[4]
November 18, 1957: Oklahoma Sooner Clendon Thomas appears on the cover, along with others on the Sooner sideline, with the headline "Why Oklahoma is Unbeatable." The next game of that season Oklahoma lost to Notre Dame, ending their NCAA Division I record 47-game winning streak,.
May 26, 1958: Race car driver Pat O'Connor appears on the cover. He dies four days later on the first lap of the Indianapolis 500.
February 13, 1961: 16-year-old Laurence Owen, the 1961 U.S. National and North American Figure Skating Champion appears on the cover as "America's Most Exciting Girl Skater". On February 15, she and the rest of the U.S. figure skating team are killed in a plane crash near Brussels, Belgium while en route to the World Figure Skating Championships in Prague, Czechoslovakia.
June 9, 1969: Lee Trevino appears on the cover as part of a preview to the U.S. Open. The defending champion fails to make the cut.
December 5, 1977: Earl Campbell and the 11-0 Texas Longhorns appear on the cover. They lose their next game, the Cotton Bowl, to Notre Dame.
August 7, 1978: Pete Rose appears on the cover the same week that his 44-game hitting streak ended.
July 30, 1984: Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Jack Lambert appeared on the cover with an interview with the headline "The Man of Steel." Lambert would miss most of the 1984 season with a turf toe injury and subsequently retired.
April 6, 1987: The Cleveland Indians, with Joe Carter and Cory Snyder, were featured in the cover with the headline "Indian Uprising", and being predicted as the best team in the American League. While both men would have a good season, the Indians themselves would have a dismal 61–101 season, the worst of any team that season.
September 26, 1988: Dwight Evans appears on the cover and goes 4-for-30 in a two-week span.
April 24, 1989: In the preview issue for the 1989 NFL Draft, football player Tony Mandarich is featured on the cover, with the label of "best offensive line prospect ever."^[5] Mandarich has been widely regarded as a bust in the NFL. In fact, he would appear on the cover again three years later under the headline "Incredible Bust".^[6]
May 8, 1989: Jon Peters of Brenham High School in Texas sets the national high school record for games won by a pitcher, with a 51–0 record. The next game after the cover, he loses for the first (and only) time in his high school career.^[7]
January 13, 1997: Mark Brunell of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Kerry Collins of the Carolina Panthers appear on the cover as their respective teams advance to the AFC and NFC Championship Games. Both teams lose.
February 12, 2001: The XFL is featured on the cover, with the headline "Cheap Thrills: Will sleazy gimmicks and low-rent football work for the XFL?" The league's popularity dramatically declined after that point, and the XFL failed after its first season.
March 5, 2001: Nomar Garciaparra appears on the cover and his off-season conditioning is detailed in the issue. The week after the issue hit newsstands, he would break his wrist, ruining his season and changing the trajectory of his career.
September 15, 2003: Buffalo Bills DT Sam Adams is pictured running back a fumble for a touchdown against the New England Patriots. The Bills did not beat the Patriots again until 2011.
September 2003: The Oregon Ducks are placed on the cover after starting 4–0 and upsetting Michigan. They lost their next four games.
October 11, 2003: In the midst of each league's respective League Championship Series, both the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox were featured on dual covers to that week's issue. Both teams would go on to suffer great collapses, as the Florida Marlins beat the Cubs and the New York Yankees beat the Red Sox; allowing both teams to advance to the World Series.
November 17, 2003: The Kansas City Chiefs appear on the cover after starting the season 9-0, but would lose the following game in Cincinnati to the Bengals. Kansas City finished the regular season 4-3, losing home field advantage to the New England Patriots, followed by losing the divisional playoff against Indianapolis.
January 26, 2004: Carolina Panthers WR Muhsin Muhammad appears on the cover after the Panthers beat the Eagles 14-3 to lead them to the Super Bowl. Next game after appearing on the cover they lose to the New England Patriots 32-29 in Superbowl XXXVIII.
January 17, 2005: Indianapolis Colts WR Marvin Harrison appears on the cover after a win versus the Denver Broncos. Next weekend they face the New England Patriots but lose in the divisonal playoff round.
In November 2007, Kansas Jayhawks wide receiver Kerry Meier appeared on the cover, which stated "Dream Season (So Far)" after the Jayhawks were 11-0. In their next game they lost to their archrivals, the Missouri Tigers, 36-28, ending their perfect season.
In September 2008, New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady appears on the cover of the NFL season preview issue. Brady tore the ACL and MCL in his left knee minutes into the season opening game to the Kansas City Chiefs.
In September 2009, pre-season Top 10 teams Oklahoma State and Ole Miss both lost after being featured on the cover of Sports Illustrated.
November 9, 2009: Iowa's Derrell Johnson-Koulianos appears on the front cover with the words "Still Perfect." The Hawkeyes lost to Northwestern two days before the issue date, ending the longest winning streak in school history.
November 16, 2009: The Indianapolis Colts' Peyton Manning appeared on the cover "Inside the Helmet of the League's Most Cerebral Quarterback" - the Colts ultimately lost to the New Orleans Saints 31-17 in Super Bowl XLIV.
January 11 2010: Miles Austin of the Dallas Cowboys was on the cover; Dallas lost the Divisional Playoff Game to the Minnesota Vikings.
In January 2010, Vikings quarterback Brett Favre was on the cover with the headline "Favre on Fire" before the NFC Championship Game and lost. New York Jets QB Mark Sanchez was on the cover in the Northeast and lost the AFC Championship Game.^[8]
In January 2010, Kentucky point guard John Wall appeared on the cover under the headline "The Great Wall." The next week undefeated Kentucky was upset on the road by 11-8 South Carolina in a game where Wall was outplayed by Gamecocks' point guard Devan Downey.
In February 2010, American alpine skier and Olympic gold medal hopeful Lindsey Vonn injured her leg the same week as she appeared on the cover. Vonn suffered a severe bruise on her right shin following a crash during training February 2. She caught a break when poor weather caused the alpine events at the Olympics to be delayed, enabling her to recover enough to win gold in her first event, the downhill. However, the "jinx" would apparently catch up with her in her other four events. First, she crashed out in the slalom portion of the super-combined after finishing first in the downhill portion. In the super-G, she admittedly skied the last part of the course too conservatively, ending up with a bronze medal. Vonn then crashed out of the giant slalom, and was disqualified for straddling a gate in the slalom.
In March 2010, Gonzaga Bulldogs star Matt Bouldin, who appeared on the cover of the SI issue on March Madness that month, suffered a poor performance in a heavy loss to the Syracuse Orange in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. The next week, Ali Farokhmanesh, whose three-pointer in the last minute clinched Northern Iowa's epic upset of #1 Kansas and placed him on the cover, had a poor performance of his own after being featured. He went 2-9 and missed 3 free throws as the Panthers fell 59–52 to Michigan State.
In April 2010, the "Core Four" of the New York Yankees (Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte and Jorge Posada) appeared on the cover, and within one week, all but Jeter suffered injuries. However, Jeter went on to have the worst offensive season of his career.
In June 2010, Stephen Strasburg was featured and later that week earned his first MLB loss, and then was injured and was put on the disabled list. On August 28, 2010 it was confirmed that Strasburg would need Tommy John surgery and will likely be out for 12 to 18 months.
In August 2010, three University of Texas football players were featured on a regional cover of SI noting a defense worthy of "winning it all." Starting the season ranked fifth, the Longhorns would finish the season 5-7, making them ineligible for the college football postseason. Five of those losses came at Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, their home field.
October 11, 2010: David Price is shown blowing a bubble on the cover of the magazine's Major League Baseball playoff issue, the Tampa Bay Rays pitcher has a poor outing in the first game of the 2010 American League Division Series, allowing 4 earned runs on nine hits, including two homeruns, in a 5-1 loss to the Texas Rangers. Price would go on to pitch in Game 5 of the series and lose by the same score of 5-1 to end the Rays playoff run and season.^[9]
November 29, 2010: Michael Vick appears on the cover after a comeback win over the New York Giants. The next week against Chicago, he throws an interception and the Eagles go on to lose to the Bears.
January 10, 2011 Vince Wilfork appears on the cover after the win versus Miami in Week 17. In his next game, his team (Patriots) loses to the Jets in the divisional playoff game.
January 19, 2011: Jay Cutler appears on the cover. He injures his knee as the Bears go on to lose to the Green Bay Packers in the NFC championship game.
January 19, 2011: Calvin Pace appears on the cover after a win vs New England in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. The next game the Jets lose to Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship Game.
March 24, 2011: The BYU Cougars player Jimmer Fredette appeared on the cover after the Cougars beat Gonzaga to take them to their first Sweet 16 since 1981. In the next game, Jimmer only hit 11 of 29 shots in a loss to the Florida Gators .^[10]
September 29, 2011: The Buffalo Bills (specifically, cornerback Drayton Florence returning an interception for a touchdown) are featured on a regional cover after breaking their 15-game losing streak to the New England Patriots, their first appearance on an SI cover since the last time they defeated New England (see above). They go on to lose the next week to the Cincinnati Bengals, breaking a winning streak the Bills had against the Bengals that dated to the 1980s.^[11]
August 21, 2011 - Nebraska defensive lineman Jared Crick is featured front and center on the college preview cover. He will not finish his senior year because of a torn pectoral muscle.
October 15, 2011 - Jimmie Johnson had an accident at Charlotte Motor Speedway in the Bank of America 500, jeopardizing his chance of a sixth consecutive NASCAR Sprint Cup championship. Johnson would finish 6th in the points.
October 31, 2011- Yorvit Torrealba, catcher for the Texas Rangers appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated during their World Series win. The Rangers would then go on to lose the series to the St. Louis Cardinals despite being one strike away from winning twice during game 6.

References

^ "Sports Illustrated". CNN. http://i.cnn.net/si/si_online/covers/images/1984/1210_large.jpg.
^ Paula Zahn (2002-01-25). "Is Their (sic) a "Sports Illustrated" Cover Jinx?". CNN. http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0201/25/ltm.01.html. Retrieved 2007-08-28.
^ "The Cover That No One Would Pose for: Is the SI Jinx for Real?". CNN and Sports Illustrated. 2002-01-21. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/features/cover/coverlarge012102.html. Retrieved 2009-09-25.
^ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Sweikert
^ "Most Popular". CNN. http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/cover/featured/9169/index.htm. Retrieved May 25, 2010.
^ "Tony Mandarich". CNN. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/multimedia/photo_gallery/1004/nfl.draft.busts.modern.era/content.3.html.
^ http://www.mentalfloss.com/blogs/archives/26197
^ Joe Everett (2010-01-27). "NFL Fantasy Six-Pack". Bleacher Report. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/334156-the-fantasy-6-pack.
^ "Box Score: Texas vs. Tampa Bay - October 6, 2010". MLB.com. 2010-10-06. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/boxscore.jsp?gid=2010_10_06_texmlb_tbamlb_1.
^ Andy Staples (2009-09-25). "The SI Cover Jinx Strikes Again!". CNN and Sports Illustrated. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/andy_staples/09/25/olemiss.carolina.jinx/. Retrieved 2009-09-25.
^ "MMQB (cont.)". CNN. October 3, 2011. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/peter_king/10/02/week.4/3.html.

Sports Illustrated cover jinx

Contents

Explanations

Notable incidences

References

Further reading